The NFL is back and so is its parity. Of the four major sports, none brings new hope and rejuvenation to each fan base like the NFL; unless of course you’re one of the 3,593 Jaguars fans, Fireman Ed, or a lowly Raiders fan in which case there is zero hope. Of course with all of the uncertainty of a league full of such parity comes everyone’s opinion and predictions. How’s the saying go? Opinions are like assholes, everybody’s got one? Yea that’s it, and I poop just like the rest of you guys.

Let’s first get into the NFL’s parity for a second. In the last 15 years, there have only been four instances where seven or more playoff teams from one year’s playoff made the playoffs the next year as well (‘01-‘02, ‘03-‘04, ‘09-‘10, and ‘11-‘12). So in other words, for the past 15 years there have been about six teams who manage to make their way into the playoffs after not making the the previous year. Even more interesting is that in the last five years the AFC carries over, on average, about four teams per year while the NFC carries just about three teams.

So what do all of these numbers mean? It means that there’s probably going to be five or six teams that don’t make the playoffs this year that made them last year. And it also means I just got off the phone with my boys Pythagoras and Mike Mayock to drop some knowledge on you all as to which teams will be watching from home come playoff time, unlike last year.

AFC

Indianapolis Colts

2012 record: 11-5

Projected 2013 record: 7-9

The Colts benefited greatly from a weaksauce schedule in 2012. Eight of their 11 wins came against teams with a losing record despite having one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Four of their five losses came on the road with an average deficit of 23.25 points, and that shouldn’t change with road games at San Francisco, Houston, and Cincinnati this year. Grab your parachutes Indianapolis fans because the fall back down to Earth is going to hurt if you don’t.

Baltimore Ravens

2012 record: 10-6 (Superbowl Champions)

Projected 2013 record: 7-9

It seems so long ago that the Ravens almost had one of the biggest meltdowns in Superbowl history, and let’s face it, without quite possibly the worst prevent defenses ever in the history of football displayed by the Broncos, they wouldn’t have had that opportunity. It is what it is. And by that, I mean God was on Ray Lewis’ side. Well guess what? Ray Lewis is gone and he took God with him. It would be extremely difficult, even with God, to get through a first-place schedule in addition to playing the NFC North and being in the brutally tough AFC North. Superbowl champions of late have missed the boat the following year, and I don’t see that being any different this year. (Poor Michael Huff will never have a winning season EVER.)

2013 Newcomers

Kansas City Chiefs

2012 record: 2-14

Projected 2013 record: 9-7

The Chiefs are this year’s Colts. They will benefit not only from a last place schedule, but also from playing the Raiders and Chargers twice each in the AFC West.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2012 record: 8-8

Projected 2013 record: 10-6

The Steelers, like the Ravens will have to play within the AFC North in addition to a matchup with the NFC North, but with a third place schedule. Plus, I just look at Mike Tomlin and get all fired up. I want him to be my manager at work. He would terrify me, and I’d make a lot more money because of living in constant fear.

NFC

Minnesota Vikings

2012 record: 10-6

Projected 2013 record: 6-10

Last year still completely baffles me. How can a team that can’t pass the football or stop the passing game on defense in today’s NFL make the playoffs? I still don’t want to believe this. Again, this speaks volumes of the last place schedule creating parity in the NFL. Plus, THERE’S NO WAY ADRIAN PETERSON RUNS FOR 2,000 YARDS AGAIN. You hear me Adrian? Not a chance in hell. On the outside chance it happens (which it won’t), you’re not human, and I’ll risk athlete’s foot mouth and kiss your damn feet after the game you eclipse 2,000. Anyway, the best part about the Vikings is Sam Steele (I’m never calling her Sam Ponder) and they should go back to sucking bad this year.

Washington Redskins

2012 record: 10-6

Projected 2013 record: 8-8

Shouldn’t be any surprise here since there’s been a different team to win the NFC East in each of the last nine years. What is a surprise is the fact that the Redskins have been able to keep their name as long as they have, oh, and that they were able to rattle off seven straight wins to end last year’s regular season after starting 3-6. Lucky. I can’t believe in a team that needed to win its final seven games to get into the playoffs on a last place schedule. Or does that mean I should believe in them more? Nah, screw those grown ass men dressed like pig ladies and their happiness.

Green Bay Packers

2012 record: 11-5

Projected 2013 record: 9-7

The Packers are faced with a BRUTAL road schedule this year going to San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Dallas, New York Giants, Chicago, and Detroit.
Not to mention they have Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home as well. Their defense is going to have to improve, period. To be blunt, they remind me of a pro version of West Virginia, and we all remember what even Dave Wannstedt was able to do to West Virginia. Good thing the Packers don’t play the Bills, Wannstache would just flat out humiliate them. Tough to pick against Rodgers, but that’s what separates the men who put #5 seeds in the NCAA Final Four from the boys who put all #1 seeds. Losers.

2013 Newcomers

New Orleans Saints

2012 record: 7-9

Projected 2013 record: 11-5

In case you’ve been under a rock for the past year, Sean Payton is back this year. Do you think he wants to stick it to the NFL? You bet your sweet ass he does. I’m sure Payton sitting around doing nothing but watching film for an entire year won’t help, and I’m sure those three games against the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills won’t help either… Terrifying.

Detroit Lions

2012 record: 4-12

Projected 2013 record: 10-6

Speaking of terrifying; is there a scarier human being than Ndamukong Suh (and no, the Undertaker and Kane don’t count)? Assuming he can stay on the field without a suspension of some kind, this is the year the Lions put it together. The whole coaching staff is on the hot seat and they added Glover Quin and Ziggy Ansah to help the defense. The whole situation seems eerily similar of the Texans a few years back when Kubiak and company were on the hot seat because of a very talented, yet underachieving squad.

New York Giants

2012 record: 8-8

Projected 2013 record: 9-7

I hate myself for this, but what choice do I have? The Eagles are not going to win the NFC East. The Redskins can’t win it for reasons we’ve already discussed. This leaves the Cowboys and Giants. Both play same division, both have Denver and Green Bay at home. The Cowboys have the Saints on the road and the Rams at home. The Giants have the Panthers on the road and the Seahawks at home. That slight difference alone is why the Giants go to the playoffs while Cowboy fans continue to piss and moan about Tony Romo when half of the fans of the NFL would love to have him on their squad.  I just flipped a coin too, heads for Giants, tails for Cowboys. Heads.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

Bengals over Chiefs

Steelers over Texans

Seahawks over Lions

Giants over Saints

Divisional Round

Broncos over Steelers

Bengals over Patriots

49ers over Giants

Seahawks over Falcons

Conference Championship

Broncos over Bengals

Seahawks over 49ers

Superbowl

Seahawks over Broncos

It’s math.